The Chicago Bears are clinging to the top of the NFC North with an 8-3 record, but don’t be fooled — they’re winning despite playing like a team that shouldn’t be leading at all. As of November 27, 2025, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are locked in a Thanksgiving Day showdown at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, with everything on the line. The winner could tie or even overtake the Bears. The loser? They’ll be scrambling just to stay in contention. And here’s the twist: the Bears, who’ve won four straight, have been outscored by three points all season. Meanwhile, the Packers have outscored opponents by 68. Something’s off. And everyone knows it.
The Numbers Don’t Add Up
The Chicago Bears are 8-3. That’s the record. But their point differential? -3. They’ve scored 289, allowed 292. That’s not luck — that’s survival. They’ve won three games by three points or fewer, including a last-second field goal against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9. Their defense has forced six fumbles in the last four games. Their offense? A mess. Quarterback Caleb Hanie has thrown eight interceptions in November alone. Yet they’re still leading the division. The Green Bay Packers, by contrast, have a +68 point differential — the second-best in the NFC. They’ve dominated offensively, averaging 29.4 points per game. Their quarterback, Jordan Love, has 26 touchdown passes and just four picks since Week 7. But they’re 8-3-1. Three losses. Three games they should’ve won. A blown 21-point lead against the San Francisco 49ers. A last-minute collapse at home to the Seattle Seahawks. And now, a three-game losing streak. They’re better than their record. But so are the Bears.
Thanksgiving: The Division’s Decider
On November 27, 2025, the Packers and Lions meet at Lambeau. The stakes? Massive. If the Packers win, they’ll be 9-3-1 — tied with the Bears in wins, but with a better divisional record (3-1 vs. Bears’ 1-2). If the Lions win, they’ll be 8-3, matching Chicago’s record and leapfrogging them on tiebreakers. The Lions have been the division’s surprise. They’re 2-2 in the NFC North, 3-3 on the road. Their offense, led by Jahmyr Gibbs and Jared Goff, has been surprisingly consistent. But their defense? It’s porous. They’ve given up 255 points — 31 more than they’ve scored. Can they win at Lambeau, where they haven’t triumphed since 2020? The weather’s supposed to be 14°F with a wind chill of 2°F. Snow flurries expected. This isn’t just football. It’s war.
Who’s Left in the Race?
The Minnesota Vikings are done. At 4-7, they’re mathematically eliminated from the division. Their quarterback situation is a disaster. Their defense is last in the league in red zone stops. They’re not just out of contention — they’re a cautionary tale. Meanwhile, the Bears’ schedule doesn’t get easier. After Thanksgiving, they face the Los Angeles Rams (9-2), then the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then a home game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Rams lead the NFC West. The Chiefs are 10-1. The Bears are playing like a team that got lucky. The Packers? They face the New Orleans Saints, then the Cincinnati Bengals, then a season finale against the Chicago Bears. That’s not a soft finish. That’s a gauntlet.
Why This Matters Beyond the Division
The NFC playoff picture is tightening. The Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) lead the East. The Los Angeles Rams (9-2) lead the West. The San Francisco 49ers (8-3) are lurking. The top seed in the NFC? That’s the prize. Home-field advantage through the playoffs. And the NFC North winner? They’re likely to be the #3 or #4 seed. That means a first-round matchup against the Rams or 49ers — not the Eagles or Commanders. The Bears, with their -3 differential, are the weakest team among the top four in the NFC. If they win the division, they’ll be the first team in NFL history to do so with a negative point differential. The Packers? If they win the division, they’ll be the strongest team to do it in over a decade. The Lions? They haven’t won the division since 2011. This game isn’t just about pride. It’s about legacy.
What’s Next?
Five weeks remain. Five chances to flip the script. The Bears need to stop winning ugly. The Packers need to stop losing close games. The Lions need to win on the road — and do it in freezing weather. The winner of this Thanksgiving game will have momentum. The loser? They’ll need a miracle. And if the Bears somehow hold on? They’ll enter January as the division’s most unlikely champion — a team that survived, not thrived. The NFL doesn’t care how you win. But the fans? They remember how.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can the Bears still lead the NFC North with a negative point differential?
The Bears are winning close games — three by three points or fewer — and have benefited from a favorable schedule, including two wins against the winless Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions in Week 5 and 10. Their 8-3 record is built on defense and opportunistic turnovers, not sustained dominance. Only one team in NFL history (the 2008 Cincinnati Bengals) won a division with a negative point differential, and they were 8-8. The Bears are doing it at 8-3, which makes it historically unusual.
What happens if the Packers and Lions tie on Thanksgiving?
A tie isn’t possible under current NFL rules — games go to overtime. But if the game ends in a tie after overtime, both teams would be 8-3-1. The Packers would still lead the division on tiebreakers due to their better divisional record (3-1 vs. Lions’ 2-2). The Bears, at 8-3, would retain the top spot. A tie would only help the Bears, making their path to the division title easier.
Why is the Packers’ +68 point differential so important?
The Packers’ +68 differential is the second-best in the NFC, behind only the Rams. It reflects consistent offensive execution and elite defensive play. Teams with such differentials win playoff games at a 78% clip over the past decade. The Bears’ -3 differential is the worst among any division leader since 2005. This gap suggests the Packers are the true elite team in the division — they just haven’t been able to close out games.
Can the Lions still win the division if they lose on Thanksgiving?
Yes, but it’s unlikely. If the Lions lose, they fall to 7-4. They’d need the Bears to lose at least two of their final five games, and the Packers to lose at least three. They’d also need to win their remaining games, including a tough road trip to Minneapolis and a home game against the Buffalo Bills. Their tiebreaker position is already behind both teams. A loss on Thanksgiving makes their path a longshot.
What’s the significance of playing at Lambeau Field?
The Lions haven’t won at Lambeau Field since 2020. The Packers are 14-2 at home since 2022. The weather on Thanksgiving is expected to be brutal — below zero with wind. The Packers’ offense thrives in cold conditions. The Lions’ passing game, reliant on Jared Goff’s timing, struggles in the wind. Home-field advantage isn’t just about crowd noise — it’s about conditions the visitors aren’t prepared for.
Who’s the favorite to win the NFC North?
Right now, the Chicago Bears are the favorites because they’re ahead. But the Green Bay Packers are the most talented team. If they win on Thanksgiving, they become the clear favorite. If they lose, the Lions get a lifeline. The Bears’ lead is built on momentum, not merit. In January, talent wins. And right now, the Packers have it.
